Forecasting Rainfall Distribution Based on Deseasonalising Fuzzy Time Series Model

Authors

  • Siti Nor Fathihah Azahari Faculty of Computer Science and Mathematic University of MARA Technology Arau, 02600 Perlis, Malaysia.
  • Mahmod Othman Faculty of Computer Science and Mathematic University of MARA Technology Arau, 02600 Perlis, Malaysia.

Keywords:

Rainfall Distribution, Fuzzy Time Series, Forecasting, Deseasonalising,

Abstract

Rainfall prediction is an essential process to reduce loss of lives and properties. However, the accuracy of this prediction has been of many concerns in literature. Therefore, this paper proposed a model of rainfall prediction based on deseasonalising data and fuzzy time series concept. The historical data of rainfall distribution were collected from Drainage and Irrigation Department, Perlis Malaysia between January 2000 and December 2013. These data were analysed in order to determine the seasonal components using fuzzy time series as a medium. The study made use of deseasonalising rainfall data by employing fuzzy time series model in order to forecast the rainfall distribution. The model performance was evaluated by using statistical criteria of Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The obtained result was compared with several forecasting models in literature and it was found to be more accurate than others. Hence, this study demonstrates that fuzzy time series model is more suitable for the accurate prediction of rainfall distributions.

Downloads

Published

2017-06-01

How to Cite

Azahari, S. N. F., & Othman, M. (2017). Forecasting Rainfall Distribution Based on Deseasonalising Fuzzy Time Series Model. Journal of Telecommunication, Electronic and Computer Engineering (JTEC), 9(2-4), 89–93. Retrieved from https://jtec.utem.edu.my/jtec/article/view/2364

Issue

Vol. 9 No. 2-4: Circuit and System Advancement in Modern World III

Section

Articles

License

TRANSFER OF COPYRIGHT AGREEMENT

The manuscript is herewith submitted for publication in the Journal of Telecommunication, Electronic and Computer Engineering (JTEC). It has not been published before, and it is not under consideration for publication in any other journals. It contains no material that is scandalous, obscene, libelous or otherwise contrary to law. When the manuscript is accepted for publication, I, as the author, hereby agree to transfer to JTEC, all rights including those pertaining to electronic forms and transmissions, under existing copyright laws, except for the following, which the author(s) specifically retain(s):

  1. All proprietary right other than copyright, such as patent rights
  2. The right to make further copies of all or part of the published article for my use in classroom teaching
  3. The right to reuse all or part of this manuscript in a compilation of my own works or in a textbook of which I am the author; and
  4. The right to make copies of the published work for internal distribution within the institution that employs me

I agree that copies made under these circumstances will continue to carry the copyright notice that appears in the original published work. I agree to inform my co-authors, if any, of the above terms. I certify that I have obtained written permission for the use of text, tables, and/or illustrations from any copyrighted source(s), and I agree to supply such written permission(s) to JTEC upon request.