Seasonal Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting under Tropical Condition using Fuzzy Approach Model

Authors

  • Yusri Syam Akil Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Hasanuddin University, Makassar 90245, Indonesia.
  • Yasunori Mitani Dept. of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Kyushu Institute of Technology, Kitakyushu 804-8550, Japan.

Keywords:

Short Term Load Forecasting, Tropical Condition, Fuzzy Approach, Dry Season, Rainy Season,

Abstract

Concern of this work is analysis and short-term electricity demand forecasting under tropical condition using fuzzy approach. Two different demand models are proposed for dry season and rainy season to forecast a total load demand in Makassar, Indonesia for 24 hours ahead in each season. Based on the typical characteristic of seasonal demand, three inputs (time of load, temperature, and type of day) are used for load model in dry season, and four inputs (time of load, temperature, type of day, and rainfall) for load model in rainy season. Meanwhile, output is estimated load in related seasons. Some forecasting error analyses are applied to models. Under tested cases, both seasonal models have good forecasting results with MAPE values smaller than 2.95%. Estimated demand values when holidays and non-holidays in each season which are relatively close to actual load have confirmed effectiveness of the fuzzy based models.

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Published

2017-03-15

How to Cite

Syam Akil, Y., & Mitani, Y. (2017). Seasonal Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting under Tropical Condition using Fuzzy Approach Model. Journal of Telecommunication, Electronic and Computer Engineering (JTEC), 9(1-3), 77–82. Retrieved from https://jtec.utem.edu.my/jtec/article/view/1748