Quantifying Critical Parameter in Disease Transmission
Keywords:
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease, Maximum Likelihood, Parameter Estimation, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, Statistical Modeling.Abstract
The values of each parameter introduced in a disease model play important role in providing the prediction of a disease transmission. Some parameters values are easily quantified through collected statistical data usually made available from clinical research. However, there may be some parameters that are not easily found. For such case, the parameters values are estimated through many trial-and-error numerical runs. In this paper, it is shown that a statistical modeling approach coupled with the Maximum Likelihood Estimate method can be used to quantify critical model parameters. A Hand-Foot-Mouth disease (HFMD) model was taken as a case study where infected population data provided by the Sarawak State of Health was fitted onto the SusceptibleInfected-Removal (SIR) model. The concerned parameter is the transmission coefficient of HFMD in the year 2012. Using the mentioned method, it was found that the value for the transmission coefficient of HFMD in 2012 is 1.2654 (CI: 1.15-1.43). It can be concluded that the critical parameter with 95% confidence interval in SIR model has been quantified effectively. Due to the possibility of obtaining other sets of infected population data, a web application called the Disease Modeling Parameter Calculator was developed to assist in estimating the transmission coefficient.Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
TRANSFER OF COPYRIGHT AGREEMENT
The manuscript is herewith submitted for publication in the Journal of Telecommunication, Electronic and Computer Engineering (JTEC). It has not been published before, and it is not under consideration for publication in any other journals. It contains no material that is scandalous, obscene, libelous or otherwise contrary to law. When the manuscript is accepted for publication, I, as the author, hereby agree to transfer to JTEC, all rights including those pertaining to electronic forms and transmissions, under existing copyright laws, except for the following, which the author(s) specifically retain(s):
- All proprietary right other than copyright, such as patent rights
- The right to make further copies of all or part of the published article for my use in classroom teaching
- The right to reuse all or part of this manuscript in a compilation of my own works or in a textbook of which I am the author; and
- The right to make copies of the published work for internal distribution within the institution that employs me
I agree that copies made under these circumstances will continue to carry the copyright notice that appears in the original published work. I agree to inform my co-authors, if any, of the above terms. I certify that I have obtained written permission for the use of text, tables, and/or illustrations from any copyrighted source(s), and I agree to supply such written permission(s) to JTEC upon request.